Mathematical Models

Spatial distribution and characteristics of HIV clusters in Ethiopia

This article, published in Tropical Medicine & International Health, aims to identify the spatial and temporal trends, and epidemiologic correlates, of HIV clusters in Ethiopia. The authors use biomarker and survey data from the 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of HIV is estimated using the Kulldorff spatial scan statistic, a likelihood-based method for determining clustering. The study results indicate that in Ethiopia, geographic HIV clusters are driven by different risk factors. Decreasing the HIV burden will therefore require targeted interventions.

Health gains and financial risk protection afforded by public financing of selected interventions in Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis

This article, published in the Lancet Global Health, aims to evaluate the health and financial risk protection benefits of selected interventions that could be publicly financed by the government of Ethiopia. The authors used an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to assess the health gains (deaths averted) and financial risk protection afforded (cases of poverty averted) by a bundle of nine interventions that the Government of Ethiopia aims to make universally available. This approach incorporates financial risk protection into the economic evaluation of health interventions and therefore provides information about the efficiency of attainment of both major objectives of a health system: improved health and financial risk protection. It is especially relevant for the design and sequencing of universal health coverage to meet the needs of poor populations.